Dec 29, 2008

2009 predictions: a summary (apologies if this seems repetitive)

Posted by: Marian Salzman In: trendspotting

(I’m making a lot of appearances this week and people keep asking me to give them one pagers on the American mind and mood. Here’s what we pulled together most recently, as a crib sheet and a handout. I’m publishing it here in case you want 900 words on what to expect. The emphasis is decidedly American; in 2009, we will increasingly re-focus on global issues, ideas, discussions and dialogues.)

I’ve been identifying shifts long enough to know that 2008 has been unlike anything before it and that 2009 will see more unprecedented change. Optimism is the message people want to hear; change is the one thing we can count on.

We’re looking ahead to a year no one expects will be easy. (No less than a “fundamental reboot” of the basic systems that drive the world’s economies and societies was the call from the World Economic Forum’s recent gathering in Dubai.)

The yearning for change isn’t some abstract mantra—it’s born out of crisis. We have to change for the better: personally, professionally, globally. But how far are we willing to go?

The global crisis is triggering a wave of soul-searching that will spur many powerful people to action—hopefully concerted action. The coming year will be a time when what should happen will exert far more influence than usual on what actually does happen.

The U.S. has taken a decisive step toward change by electing not only our first African-American president but also the first non-Boomer to hold the office in years and the first from Generation Jones (born 1955 to 1964). Barack Obama’s election signifies a generational shift in the leadership of government and business.

With Boomers easing out of the spotlight, Jonesers are bringing their own experiences to the table, a point of view more in tune with the tech-savvy X and Y generations. Greed-loving Gordan Gekkos will give way to more pragmatic men and women living their family values rather than using them as an overwrought debate tactic.

As Obama moves east and turns 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue into a truly global White House as well as a home for a young family, we’ll find out just how radical he will get with change and how fast he’ll move.

With people reeling from the financial meltdown and still shaken from the terror attacks on Mumbai, high on the Reboot agenda will be satisfying a demand for leadership that can identify threats sooner and deal with them effectively.

Change in our health care system is also an imperative for restoring well-being in the rebooted world. Stakeholders have the potential to turn this lose-lose situation into a win-win, but only if they’re willing to take the risks required to overcome the hurdles of vested interests.

Technology will have a crucial role to play in bringing about change. We’ve seen its downsides—how the ease and speed of communications can generate volatile, reactive behaviors in the markets, in leadership and among the public. But used wisely and fairly, the same technologies that have helped drive global panic can be harnessed to spot emerging trends and threats early enough to head them off or at least prepare for the consequences.

No matter how much stability we can achieve, we’re going to see big changes in Americans’ purchasing patterns. Consumers are starting to rethink their definitions of “value” and “values” when it comes to spending. They’ll take a longer view, focusing on what feels most necessary, what provides greater long-term value or what makes a positive impact on the world, rather than on simply feeding desire. Buyers are paying closer attention to cause-related messaging as values of responsibility, sustainability, cooperation and peace of mind trump the “more, more, more” ethos that has long reigned in our culture.

While men will inevitably struggle as the recession challenges their traditional role of provider, women on the whole are going into the recession more educated and empowered than ever. And the female-driven economy will have a major impact as we emerge from the crisis—today women are decision makers and heads of household in record numbers.

With the national pastime of spending hand over fist no longer an option, everyone will be looking to media—predominantly online media—for cheaper ways to unwind. We’ll build our own unique Third Place, the space apart from work and home, where we choose what to read, watch, create and discuss. Here we can hang out with a few friends or invite the whole world.

More of us will invite the world, further blurring the line between public and private. We’ll see even more radical transparency in the online space, with people offering up their most personal moments to whoever’s interested.

Data will become increasingly available online, thanks to Google’s mission to make the world’s information “universally accessible and useful.” The shift everywhere is toward transparency and information sharing, something that Google founder Sergey Brin has been proselytizing for, using his own experience—he recently discovered that he inherited a gene that may predispose him to Parkinson’s, and he’s using that information to try and fight it.

What’s best and what’s worst about America is bubbling to the surface right now, and there’s no place to watch like Illinois, which has attracted intense global interest over the past year thanks to the president-elect. Rooted in the heart of America, it’s a microcosm of the change of direction that’s happening across the U.S. right now—exposing corrupt politicians and protesting unfair treatment of workers, for instance. Porter Novelli surveys show that Chicagoans are more active in social causes than other Americans—they are setting the tone for the rest of the nation.

Change is happening, and keeping these issues in our conversations as we strategize for 2009 is key to being a part of change, and making it work for us.

  • mrcuspers
    I think your definition for cuspers is nebulous. Real cuspers are Eisenhower babies born from January 1955 to January 20, 1961. They were too young to be drafted for the Vietnam War but old enough to remember JFK. Generation Jones began when JFK took office. The period between 1955 and 1961 was unique unto itself in America.
  • StuartHarris
    From my perspective as a Brit born in September 1954, I feel more like a Cusper than a Boomer. I was into the music of the 60s from pretty early on and I was interested in the idealistic aspects of the counter-culture, but I didn't do protests or marches or music festivals or drugs. I had a lot of links with "real Boomers" through older cousins. The culture was already history for me.
  • mrcuspers
    Close enough; you're on the cusp. Here in America, Disneyland opened January 1955 and ushered in the beginning of cultural imagination.
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